Marvin Shilmer

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Posts by Marvin Shilmer

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  5

  Royal Commission... Monty Baker?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  i see a former elder by the name of monty baker on the royal commission's witness list.

  transcripts show a lawyer representing monty baker during the hearings, but so far i see no transcript where monty baker has testified before the commission.

  am i missing something?

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Pardon me. I found it.
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  5

  Royal Commission... Monty Baker?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  i see a former elder by the name of monty baker on the royal commission's witness list.

  transcripts show a lawyer representing monty baker during the hearings, but so far i see no transcript where monty baker has testified before the commission.

  am i missing something?

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  2. 
  3. 
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  Marvin Shilmer

  I see a former elder by the name of Monty Baker on the Royal Commission's witness list. Transcripts show a lawyer representing Monty Baker during the hearings, but so far I see no transcript where Monty Baker has testified before the Commission. Am I missing something?
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  4

  Elmwood congregation, Dallas, Texas.

  by witnessscorn in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  i was in elmwood congregation, in early 70's i have reason to believe there was ritual abuse going on while i was there.

  anybody have any incite?

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Does the name Picchioni mean anything to you?
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  22

  royal commission so far

  by zeb in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  before another day goes past please, summarize the outcome in dot points of the royal commission so far.

  for me in no order;.

  that the wt considers sex crimes against children of little importance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Marvin, that is a very frightening scale of abuse when presented this way. And these are so called known figures..... it is likely far greater....

  Yes. The numbers are frightening. Making this worse is that my extrapolation ignored about 10% of the reported cases for reasons stated in my findings. Hence the number of child molesters known by congregation elders is very probably much higher than what I've extrapolated. .
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Marvin - there was a WT article in October 1983 which pretty much encouraged those who'd been abused within the family to go to the elders for 'spiritual help'. 1985 started with the Awake on child molestation. Not sure if that would explain any bump in numbers for the period you mention.

  I considered that. But the main "bump" I saw began in or around 1989-1990. Remember the case files from the Australian Branch are a result of reporting from elders, and not all this reporting is the result of judicial committee activity. I think this fits the profile of direction issued in 1989 for elders to report to Watchtower's legal department the reporting of any allegation of child abuse. As of that letter, it didn't matter if the allegation had ramification of a judicial committee. The mere report of child abuse instigated a report to Watchtower.
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Why did you use peak publisher and not average publisher. Wouldn't the average publishers give a more accurate picture. If you were to use ave pubs what would the numbers come out at.

  Whether I used the peak or average publisher count it would not matter to the end result because the population size is fixed based on the hard count in the data base of cases. The only reason I used peak publishers is because Watchtower's submissions to the Royal Commission about the number of Jehovah's Witnesses in the Australian Branch uses the peak publisher count.

  I also think you need to post these current findings in another thread.

  If there is enough interest in these values I might do that. Let's see whether there is an appetite for the discussion.
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  12

  These Aussie girls are popular around the world for lipsing

  by barry in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmpqusqcjfg.

  what on gods earth is the world coming too.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Just watched this latest video. I have to say it. These gals are flat-out hot. On fire hot.
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  22

  royal commission so far

  by zeb in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  before another day goes past please, summarize the outcome in dot points of the royal commission so far.

  for me in no order;.

  that the wt considers sex crimes against children of little importance.

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  2. 
  3. 
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  Marvin Shilmer

  - Based on data disclosed by the Royal Commission we can safely calculate that between the years of 1975 to 2014 every single congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses in the world has had in its midst at least one reported case of a sexual molestation of a child by someone with standing in the congregation.
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Marvin Shilmer

  Okay, more on my statistical review.

  So far:

  1. I've focused my attention on two things. The sample of peak publishers in the Australian branch and the population of that sample of cases reported of individuals with standing in a congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses who've sexually molested a child (or children). (See my second post in this discussion for more detail on criteria for inclusion)

  2. For the 10-year period of 2005-2014 I found an annual average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher. Applied to the worldwide peak publishers for the same 10-year period extrapolates 28,827 individuals associated with Jehovah's Witnesses that have been reported for sexual molestation of a child.

  3. For the 10-year period of 2005-2014 I found victims at an annual average rate of 0.000645 per peak publisher. Applied to the worldwide peak publishers for the same 10-year period extrapolates 46,102 child victims.

  Trend

  The result of a question asked of trends and subsequent number crunching found the following:

  4. When I constructed 10-year averages of reported cases it showed at year 1999 nearly the same case incidence level as the average for years 2005-2014. Prior to this the incident rate had been growing, but it was in 1999 that a 10-year average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher was achieved. This made me look back to in-and-around 1989 to see if something at that time would have augmented reporting of child molestation. 1989 was the year Watchtower sent out a letter to congregation elders that singled out child molestation and directed elders to always report these allegations to Watchtower by calling its legal department. To my knowledge this was the first of such a directive to elders. This would explain why reporting began to rise of child molestation allegations in particular.

  5. The 10-year average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher as of 2014 represents somewhat of a downward trend. I say "downward" because as a 10-year average this prevalence was first achieved in 1999. After than it went up, reaching a zenith in year 2008 at 0.000681 per peak publishers as a 10-year average. Since then as a 10-year average the incident rate has slowly declined back to its 1999 level.

  6. For whatever it's worth, applied to the worldwide peak publishers for the period of 1975-2014 incident values disclosed in the Australian Branch data extrapolates 81,821 reported cases worldwide of perpetrators with standing in a congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses, and it extrapolates 148,040 child victims. Over this span of years the average number of congregations per year is about 73,000. This means for the period of 1975-2014 each congregation has experienced, on the average, at least one reported case of a child molester in its midst. (Personal note: this fits my own experience. In my years working with several congregations of Jehovah's Witnesses, I don't recall one where elders had not reported at least one incident of child molestation. These probably included incidents that are not included in my statistical review because my review excluded for one reason or another more than 150 of the cases included in the Australian Branch data report. But when I was through crunching these numbers it dawned on me that this fits what I've experienced myself.)
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Marvin Shilmer

  This isn't a mistake its deliberate, they knew. The kingdom of God belongs to these one`s. To the children & they have knowingly put them in danger.

  Yes. Watchtower knowingly put men into trusted and authoritative positions who had sexually molested a child or children. It's beyond reprehensible. It makes a dog want to defecate! It's even harder on a human with any sense of decency!

  Everyone of those men put in the witness box had only one concern. PROTECTING THE ORG, not Jehovahs name & not the kids.

  Yep. And that says plenty!!!